PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF PROBABILISTIC SCENARIOS FOR THE PALM SECTOR IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF VILLANUEVA (CASANARE)

Abstract

The article presents results of probabilistic scenarios through the strategic prospective for the palm sector of the municipality of Villanueva (Casanare), seeking to mitigate future risks and improve decisión-making, establishing scenarios with a high relative probability of occurrence, through the use of strategic tolos such as scenario design and the use of MIC-MAC and SMIC PROB EXPERT sotware to identify the key variables that are appropriate for the sector under study, the involvement of actors and the análisis of hypotheses, in relation to the objectives strategic and key variables. This i show the 15 probabilistic scenarios are obtained, from which the scenario or scenarios with the highest relative probability of occurrence are established, which accepts to prioritize the strategic objectives of the sector, basing the events that make up the scenario.